Alpine Communications Blog
Faster Internet hastens change
By Clint Swett - Bee Staff Writer
Published 12:00 am PDT Saturday, July 14,
2007
Addicted
to YouTube?
Think
how much better it would be if you could watch its videos on your TV in
high-definition.
Want to
check on the kids at home? A superfast Internet connection could let you view
their activities on a webcam in full-motion video.
Do you
need to collaborate with a colleague in another state? Instead of hopping on an
airplane, he'll appear on a screen set up in your office.
As
broadband providers jack up Internet connection speeds by tenfold or more,
experts say the increasing velocity will profoundly change everything from
entertainment to medical care to business travel.
It won't
be the first time that rising speed limits on the Internet superhighway have
changed American lifestyles or spending habits. As broadband penetration into
The
speed enhancements also gave rise to new businesses and widened the use of
others: Online music purchases from stores like Apple's iTunes have exploded.
MySpace and Google have emerged as household names. And, although still a niche
product, Internet phone service such as Vonage has become more popular.
Just as
early broadband made text-intensive content such as blogs and newspapers
quickly available online, faster speeds will do the same for video, experts
say. Already speeds of 6 megabits per second are available to much of the
"We'll
move from a world of 300 channels to 3 million" predicted Michael
Liebhold, a senior researcher at the Institute for the Future, a
That's
already happened to a certain degree.
For
instance,
Web
sites ranging from ESPN to MySpace post plenty of video content. But the
picture is sometimes jerky, screen sizes small and resolution blurry.
Faster
connections would eliminate many of those problems and even encourage
programmers to post higher-quality videos, knowing they can be streamed easily
over the faster networks.
High-speed
connections could allow consumers to bypass their cable systems and someday
click on an NBC, HBO or Fox Sports Web site and watch favorite shows or teams
in high-definition whenever they want. "It will be TiVo on steroids,"
said Phil Leigh, an analyst with Inside Digital Media in
Such
programming would likely be supported by ads, pay-per-view or subscription
services, and could generate more than $15 billion a year by 2012 from an
audience of 1 billion users, according to a study by Michael Wolf, an analyst
for ABI Research in Seattle.
Yet the
innovation could also rattle the business model of cable companies by allowing
viewers to bypass cable.
"Comcast
might find they are better off in a business selling high-speed Internet than
selling cable (programming)," Leigh said.
Comcast
appears to be preparing for either eventuality. Company officials were not
available for comment, but later this year Comcast is expected to launch
Fancast, a video search hub designed to help people sort through the various
video offerings on the Internet.
The
cable giant also recently purchased ThePlatform, a Seattle-based company that
produces technology to create custom broadband video channels. And Comcast is
reportedly working on technology to provide broadband speeds of up to 160
megabits per second, roughly 26 times faster than its current 6 megabit
service.
Other
cable companies are taking Internet video seriously, as well. SureWest
Broadband in
SureWest
engineers are experimenting with hardware that will allow customers to view
Internet content such as videos on their televisions, said Haavard Sterri, the
company's executive director of marketing.
He also
said SureWest's Internet service could help insulate it against a move to
online video. "We have the platform to take care of both ends of the
spectrum," Sterri said. "So we will have a revenue stream whether
people are watching through the Internet or cable."
Less
than two dozen customers have signed up for SureWest's 50 mbps service, in
which the user could download "Terminator II" in about 4 minutes. The
same movie over a 1.5 mbps DSL connection might take more than 2.5 hours, and
an excruciating 67 hours over a typical dial-up connection, according to
research by the Stevens Institute of
John
Husman, a 24-year-old network administrator subscribes to the service in his
Natomas home, and said he has no second thoughts about paying the $260 monthly
fee.
He uses
it to host a couple of servers as well as play several online video games
simultaneously.
"It's
very smooth and very stable," he said, adding that it gives him a huge
advantage in blasting the bad guys in the games he plays.
Fears
that consumers will abandon cable in droves to watch online videos may be
overblown, said Bruce Leichtman, head of Leichtman Research Group in
"Television
already works pretty darn well," he said. "The Internet will augment
and complement television. To think it will replace TV is where people are
getting carried away."
With the
prices of high-definition screens plummeting, said Liebhold, the
Someday,
he said, people probably will routinely have open video connections to their
relatives' homes, allowing them to sit in their respective living rooms and
chat for hours, if they choose.
In
business settings, small wireless sensors will send constant streams of data to
people monitoring conditions from miles away. Doctors, for instance, could
oversee a diabetic child's condition even if the patient was at summer camp.
While
the faster speeds are likely to spur dramatic changes, they are not likely to
be severely disruptive, predicted Larry Irving co-chair of the Internet
Innovation Alliance.
"Unlike
the Internet where a lot of people didn't see it coming, people have time to
get ready for this," he said.
